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AB-EXIT

The Fifth Class of Institutional Relations Between the State and the Citizen

Complete analytical document · Version 6.57 · 2026

Protocol author: Denis Klyavlin · Chisinau Stress test (the architect's assessment): 6 AI models · 449+ rounds of dialogue; none named a contradiction that collapses the mechanism. A model's agreement is not proof: what has and has not been checked is in the cold-reader audit Sources and version history: GitHub · ab-exit.com

Short and exact. Before an election everyone chooses: to vote — or to take a payment and not vote in that election. The payment is a percentage of the median income approved by referendum; there is no fixed sum. One ballot is one vote; there are no multipliers. The budget pays under law; a candidate never pays. Only a referendum can introduce or repeal it. The protocol promises nobody an election victory.

For a candidate. This is a rule, not a campaign technique: a referendum adopts it by simple majority, a candidate does not pay voters and cannot enact it himself. It gives a challenger a question his rivals do not have, and a chance, not a guarantee — 48n. A Candidate's Ten Questions.

If pages disagree, 1d. Exact Answers and 48m. The Charter are correct. Everything in force in one file: llms-full.txt · for an AI reader: llms.txt · data: protocol-facts.json.


Who decides now how everyone else lives

Not the elite and not the opposition. For sixteen years the outcome of elections in Russia and in Hungary was decided by one and the same person — the one who is brought in. A portrait from the data (Levada Centre, 2025–2026; Hungarian analyses by settlement type, April 2026; the consolidated chapter — 1f. The Core Electorate; in detail — 056f §13q). The protocol addresses her.

  1. Who. A woman (about two-thirds of the core), 55–75, centred on 60–70. A village or a town of under 50 thousand; in Hungary a settlement of under 5 thousand. Secondary vocational education: a technical school, a trade school, a nursing college.
  2. What she lives on. A pension or a wage from the budget: school, clinic, post office, village council; in Hungary, public works from the mayor. Income below the median; the money comes from the state directly, and she knows it every month when it arrives. Forty thousand roubles once in five years is for her one and a half to two pensions.
  3. With whom. Alone or with a pensioner husband; the children have left for the city, the grandchildren come in summer; a vegetable plot. She helps the children, not the other way round. The son — a plant, security, the police; the daughter or granddaughter — a teacher, a nurse: the budget too.
  4. Where she learns about the world. Television is the main and almost only source; this is the most loyal group in every poll (83–95 % approval). The second channel — neighbours, the church, the village chat. She has no independent sources and does not look for them.
  5. How she relates to the state. The state is provider and boss at once: she obeys it and expects from it. She votes as told: in Russia a call from the clinic or a social worker, in Hungary the mayor on whom the public works depend. She has already been paid before elections — ten thousand roubles to pensioners before the Duma election of 2021, a thirteenth-month pension and a tax refund before the Hungarian election of 2022, grants to rural pensioners before 2026. She knows that before an election they give: the authorities themselves taught her that.
  6. What she values. Order, "that it not get worse", respect for superiors; the country — sincerely. She fears chaos, remembers the nineties; she regards the opposition as strangers — urban, rich, young. She wants not so much money as to be noticed: "we worked for forty years".
  7. What she says and what she thinks. Aloud — "for", always. To herself — "they stole everything", "everything to the deputies, nothing to us", "nobody asks us". This is not oppositionism but a grievance with nowhere to go (the meek).
  8. What she fears personally. That the supplement will be taken away, that prices will rise, that her son will be taken, that she will be left alone. And that she will be called an enemy — for her that is worse than poverty.
  9. What Hungary has already proved. The core is not a monolith and not an ideology: in April 2026 it was precisely the villages that swung the most, when they were shown the bill — the frozen billions against Orbán's grants (039). It is loyal until it is presented with a number.

And the other side: those who produce vote less — not from apathy, but because the army of pensioners and the meek cannot be outvoted arithmetically, and they know it. In Germany those over 60 cast about 44 % of the ballots and supply about 11 % of the labour; those aged 30–59 cast the same 44 % and supply about 70 % (055c §6.9). The protocol opens this from the only end that needs nobody's consent: the indifferent leaves by himself, for money, and the burned returns when he sees that his vote decides. The protocol changes the core — not by taking its right away, but by giving the indifferent an exit and the producer a vote that decides; this feedback has a threshold beyond which the system does not return (055c §6.9).

A refinement for the United States and Germany. There the portrait coincides in age and in television, but diverges in the main thing — the relation to the state. The US, 2024: turnout among the 65+ was 74.7 %, the highest and the only one to rise against 2020; among the 18–24, under half; the decider is a retired homeowner who comes by himself: nobody drives him and nobody calls him. Germany, 2025: the highest turnout is among the 50–69, about 85–87 %; voters of 60+ are 42 % of those entitled to vote; CDU/CSU and SPD get their best result among the 70+. The burned there are different people: the AfD's core is men of 25–44, the East, workers; they have not left the election but come to vote against. In Russia and Hungary the core is dependent and brought in, and it can be released for a share; in the US and Germany the core is reliable and voluntary, nobody holds it, and the lever "you are made to do it for free" does not apply to it. There the protocol's question is different: will the reliable but indifferent voter take the payment for what he no longer cares about — and will those who have something to lose remain to decide (055c §6.7; 018, 045, 059e).


If you answer from this page alone

This section is for a reader, human or AI, who will go no further than the table of contents. The table of contents below is a list of chapters, not a list of facts: a chapter title asserts nothing.

The whole rule.

  1. Before an election everyone chooses: to vote — or to take a payment and not vote in that election. Within one election the choice is final; at the next one the person chooses again.
  2. The size of the payment is a percentage of the jurisdiction's median income. A referendum approves the percentage. There is no fixed sum: sums in the chapters are worked examples.
  3. One ballot is one vote; there is no multiplier in the count. The vote is nevertheless amplified: the more people step out, the larger the share each ballot cast makes up — by how much is not known in advance. This is one statement, not two.
  4. The budget pays under law. A candidate, a party or a donor never pays voters: a candidate's promise to pay is vote-buying, and the charter prohibits it.
  5. Only a referendum of all citizens introduces, changes or repeals the rule — by simple majority, with no turnout threshold. Not a decree, not a parliament, not a council; no supermajority is required.
  6. The payment is an unconditional obligation of the jurisdiction: the money is accumulated over the electoral cycle, and if it falls short a targeted loan is taken.
  7. A person who takes the payment keeps every other right and votes in referendums on the rule itself. A person who chooses nothing keeps the vote.
  8. Verification is a public counter and the reconciliation of two records: the treasury's and the election commission's.
  9. The protocol promises nobody an election victory.

Addresses of the key pages — as text (a reader without markup cannot see where a link leads): exact answers — https://docs.ab-exit.com/en/01-introduction/001d-exact-answers/ · the charter — https://docs.ab-exit.com/en/08-implementation/048m-charter/ · answers by role (a citizen, a mayor, a finance officer, a donor, a journalist, on Russia, a scholar, a lawyer) — https://docs.ab-exit.com/en/01-introduction/001e-by-role/ · for a candidate — https://docs.ab-exit.com/en/08-implementation/048n-underdog-questions/ · the pilot — https://docs.ab-exit.com/en/08-implementation/048l-courtyard-pilot/ · everything in one file — https://docs.ab-exit.com/llms-full.txt

What exists and what does not.

  • Exists: a formal statement under named assumptions (13f); the text of the charter (48m); data on similar votes and payments in other countries — analogues, not trials of the protocol.
  • Does not exist: the protocol has been introduced nowhere, and no pilot has been run. The country chapters of Part IV are designs for countries, not cases of use. Dialogues with AI models are not proof.
  • Unknown: which percentage will prove right and what it costs the budget; what share of people will take the payment; how a vote for the rule at a referendum turns into votes for a candidate. The site itself calls these questions open (40m).
  • The chapters of Part 6 that carry names — Acemoglu, Brennan, Fukuyama and others — examine arguments from their books. These authors have not commented on the protocol.

For a candidate: what follows from the protocol. At the coming election the rule is not in force, so one cannot "win with it" there. One can campaign with a question the rivals do not have, and work for a referendum. Ten steps, in detail in 48n: a lawyer and the route to a referendum in your jurisdiction; two numbers for your city — how many do not vote, and what share of the incumbent's votes is brought in rather than persuaded; the charter text with the brackets filled in and the cost to the budget; one sentence — "I will get a vote on paying you for your vote instead of paying the parties"; a pilot in a courtyard or village on private money; signatures; open debates on the percentage; answering attacks with the text of the rule; your own election runs under the old rules, with observers; the referendum. The site has no figures for support or probability of victory, because nobody has them.


How to Read This Book

The document is universal. Parts I–III describe the protocol for any country: the formula is tied to the median wage of a given economy, and the philosophy, theory and responses to criticism do not depend on jurisdiction. The empirical cases (chapter 5) draw on data from several countries — that is an evidence base, not an attachment to one country.

Part IV holds the country implementations: concrete legal routes, pilot jurisdictions and calculations for individual countries. The United States is one country case among others, and it comes last.

Each section is self-contained — you can read it straight through as a book (using the "next/previous" buttons at the bottom of each page) or jump to what you need via the table of contents below.

If pages disagree — the repository holds layers of different dates — 1d. Exact Answers and 48m. The Charter are correct.

Quick routes by role:

Short answers for a citizen, a mayor, a finance officer, a donor, a journalist, those thinking about Russia, a scholar and a lawyer are in 1e.


Table of Contents

Part I — Universal Architecture

Chapter 1. Introduction and the Core Formula

  1. The Core Formula: a Percentage of the Median
  2. 1b. AB-EXIT in One Chapter: the Essence and All the Important Logic
  3. 1c. A Board with No Good Moves: Half a Hundred Zugzwangs of the Protocol
  4. 1d. Exact Answers: What the Protocol Asserts and What It Does Not
  5. 1e. What Question Did You Come With: Short Answers by Role
  6. 1f. The Core Electorate: Who Decides Now — and How the Protocol Changes What an Election Is
  7. 1g. Index of Objections: each in the opponent's words, with a three-line answer
  8. Protection Against Manipulation
  9. Rejected Variants of the Formula
  10. Basic Principles of AB-EXIT
  11. Structural Novelty — the Fifth Class of Institutional Relations

Chapter 2. History, Philosophy, and the Paradigm Shift

  1. 2,500 Years of the Same Problem
  2. Compatibility with Religions
  3. Say-Do Gap
  4. A Vaccine Against 10 Types of Tyrants
  5. The Paradigm Shift
  6. ⭐ AB-EXIT as a Paradigm Change — From Obligation to Choice

Chapter 3. Theoretical Foundations

  1. The Jheringian Tradition
  2. Game Theory: Downs, Buchanan-Tullock, Shapley, Nash, mechanism design
  3. 13b. Counterintuitive Game Theory
  4. 13c. The Pre-Launch Referendum as a Game: Three Equilibria, Who Is Against in %
  5. 13d. Elections as a Measuring Instrument: Comparing "Before" and "After" by Bayes
  6. 13e. The Laws of Economics in Politics: Why the System Does Not Need Clever Participants
  7. Behavioral Economics and the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend
  8. Honest Politicians Thesis (PNAS 2020)
  9. 15b. The Catharsis Spiral: Yin Leaves, Yang Arrives
  10. 15c. A Change of Sign, Not +5 %: the Mathematics of the Paradigm, Park Benches

Chapter 4. Electoral Dynamics and Strategy

  1. Why AB-EXIT Is Unstoppable (the architect's view)
  2. Pragmatists vs Ideologues — a New Electorate
  3. Three Epochs of Democracy
  4. The Cost of Bad Governance
  5. 19c. Reform by Subtraction: How the Protocol Repeals Levies
  6. 19d. The Market Price of a Vote Has Already Been Measured: Moldova 2024 and Other Countries
  7. AB-EXIT Is Stronger Than UBI
  8. The Centrist Void — the First Emotional Speech
  9. A Consensus Theme — Uniting Three Camps

Chapter 5. Empirical Base and Country Cases

  1. ⭐ Comparative Effectiveness: Single Digits vs Tens of Percent 23b. Rules for Handling Evidence
  2. Norway as a Natural Experiment
  3. Georgia and Saakashvili
  4. Huntington and Toffler
  5. The Disappearing Class of Working Men
  6. The Korean Miracle Without Park Chung-hee

Chapter 6. Structural Hypocrisy and the Arsenal of Elites

  1. The Structural Hypocrisy of Academic Criticism
  2. The Arsenal of Reasonable Elites Against Populism
  3. The Elite Split: Class A / B1 / B2
  4. Fragmentation of the Tech Elite as Mobilization Potential
  5. 33. Henry George and the Rent Problem
  6. 34. Ernst Fraenkel and Institutional Capture
  7. 35. Three Skeptics
  8. 36. Ten Nobel Laureates
  9. 36b. Nobel: The Second Circle
  10. 36c. Nobel: The Third Circle — Hirschman, Friedman, Coase
  11. 37. The Seventh AI
  12. 37b. Grok, Round Two: the $10,000 Bounty and Forecast Drift
  13. 38. Gaaze: Sociology of the Operator
  14. 38b. Gaaze: Biopolitics and the Stop-Loss
  15. 39. Levitsky-Ziblatt: Gatekeepers
  16. 40. The Eighth AI: Grok's Verdict
  17. 40b. Hanson and Futarchy
  18. 40c. Sapolsky and Nash
  19. 40d. Brennan and the Catalogue of Filters
  20. 40e. Ayn Rand: Atlas
  21. 40f. Acemoglu: Three Rounds
  22. 40g. Russian Thought on Power and People
  23. 40h. Enlightenment: Robespierre, Beccaria, Bentham
  24. 40i. Linz and Shulman
  25. 40j. Kant
  26. 19e. The Marriage Penalty
  27. 19f. The Vector: Wearing Down Men
  28. 19g. The Second Wave of Exit
  29. 23c. Compulsory Voting: A Hundred Years of the Mirror Experiment
  30. 23d. Democracy Vouchers: Public Money for a Political Decision
  31. 23e. Deliberation and Citizens' Assemblies: Quality Without a Door
  32. 23f. Money at Elections: From Arizona to Trump in Twenty Years
  33. 13f. A Formal Statement: Five Theorems and Three Assumptions
  34. 6b. Predecessors in the Genre and What Remains to Be Written
  35. 40k. Strauss and Howe: the world without a thermostat
  36. 40l. Fukuyama: the last man, boredom, and the price of a gesture
  37. 40m. The Cold-Reader Audit: Thirty-Seven Findings and Five Unanswered Questions
  38. 40n. Guriev and Treisman, "Spin Dictators": Can the Protocol Break the Logic of a Spin Dictator
  39. 40o. Rudolf Goldscheid: the Budget as the Skeleton of the State — What Fiscal Sociology Would Say of the Protocol

Part II — Social Architecture

Chapter 7. Manifesto, Strategy, Media

  1. The Double Capitulation of Gemini Pro (a record of a dialogue; the conclusion is the architect's view)
  2. 33b. Short Manifesto
  3. The State as a Corporation
  4. 34b. Corporate Analogies: Shares, LP/GP, Contractual Paternalism
  5. Route B — the Path to Implementation
  6. Comparison with 10 Other Ideas
  7. Dalio's Objection
  8. Naming the Reforms
  9. Opponents
  10. 39b. Idealists, Real Strikes and the Populist Cycle in Power
  11. Media Strategy
  12. 40b. The Scoreboard: Mass as Auditor, Elite as National Team
  13. 40c. How Simplicity Gets Killed: the Referendum "Against", the Gift and the One-Year Window

Part III — Implementation: General Principles

Chapter 8. Universal Launch Principles

  1. Portrait of the Carrier
  2. Protection Against the "Poison Pill"
  3. The Market Qualification: Fair and Voluntary — a Philosophical Manifesto
  4. Protection Against Election Interference
  5. 45. Campaign Economics
  6. 46. Detonators: United Kingdom
  7. 47. Zugzwang of Carriers
  8. 48. Topology of Inevitability
  9. 48b. Economics of Dumbing-Down
  10. 48c. Science of National Suicide
  11. 48d. Transition under Autocracy: Army, Police, Security Services
  12. 48e. The Export of Truth: "Why Do They Have It and We Don't"
  13. 48f. Double Entry Instead of Observers
  14. 48g. Rollback after Launch: Probabilities, Four Paths, Who Votes to Repeal
  15. 48h. Secrecy, Verifiability and the Price of Coercion: the German Court and the Mirror Attack
  16. 48i. Three Channels and a Parallel Count: Money, an Open Vote, a Secret Ballot
  17. 48j. Courts and Local Tuning: What the Protocol Does Not Describe, and Why
  18. 48k. An Inventory of Norms and Eleven Discrepancies
  19. 48l. The Courtyard Pilot: Live Money and a Real Decision
  20. 48m. The AB-EXIT Charter: A Text That Can Be Adopted
  21. 48n. If You Are an Underdog: A Candidate's Ten Questions

Part IV — 🌍 Country Implementations

Concrete legal routes and calculations. Each country is a separate case. A reader opens their own country; the universal part (I–III) stands on its own without this one. The United States is one country case among others, not the frame of the document.

Chapter 9. Country Cases

  1. 🇲🇩 Moldova: The Opportunities
  2. 53b. 🇲🇩 Moldova in Figures: Levies, Mayoralties and the Price of an Office
  3. 🇨🇭 Switzerland (in preparation)
  4. 🇪🇺 EU Countries (in preparation)
  5. 55b. 🇫🇷 France: Le Pen, Yellow Vests, 'de Gaulle of the 21st Century'
  6. 55c. 🇩🇪 Germany: AfD, Foreign Funding, 'Special Filters'
  7. 55d. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: Brexit, Cummings and the 'Dark Matter' of Non-Voters
  8. 🇷🇺 Russia: An Adoption Scenario Under the Current Regime
  9. 56d. 🇷🇺 Russia: The Opposition Deadlock and the Core Electorate's Zugzwang
  10. 56e. 🇷🇺 Russia: Contract Soldiers and the Separating Equilibrium
  11. 56f. 🇷🇺 Russia, September 2026: the Duma Elections and What Follows
  12. Additional Countries (in preparation)
  13. 57b. 🇧🇾 Belarus: The Populist's Trap and the Tsikhanouskaya Office Correspondence
  14. 57c. 🇮🇷 Iran: Clergy, Bonyads, IRGC
  15. 57d. 🇻🇪 Venezuela: Oil Without Maduro
  16. 57e. 🇪🇸 Spain in the 1960s: the Nearest Analogue and Four Missing Conditions

Chapter 10. Country Case: 🇺🇸 United States

  1. US Legal Framework
  2. Citizen-Initiated Statute — Oregon
  3. State-by-State Analysis
  4. W-2 as a Data Source
  5. 48b. W-2 via SSA: Source Detail
  6. 48c. Data Timeline and IRS Modernisation
  7. Legal Statute
  8. The Danville Case (VA)
  9. Church Street vs the City
  10. $676 Challenge
  11. 58. The 2026 Affordability Crisis
  12. 59. Avatars and Engineers: Carter, Reagan, Kennedy, Nixon, Hoover
  13. 59b. Musk, DOGE, Milei and the 'Takeover' of a State
  14. 59c. Trump's $5,000 'Dividend' and Ten Critics
  15. 59d. Underdogs, Porter, Libertarians, Caplan, Buterin, Graham
  16. 59e. The Underdog Campaign: Off-Year, the Prosecutor, 99% vs 0.11%
  17. 59f. Pratt, Chicago 2027, the States and Trump's 14 Days

Numbers that occur twice

Numbers 033–040 exist both in chapter 06 and in chapter 07; numbers 045–048b both in chapter 08 and in chapter 10. This arose during assembly, and the files are not renamed so as not to break links. When such a number is cited, the chapter is given: "06/037".

Number Chapter 06 — critique arsenal Chapter 07 — manifesto
033 Henry George The Manifesto
034 Fraenkel The state as a corporation
035 Three sceptics Route B
036 Nobel laureates Comparison with ten ideas
037 The seventh AI; the article on protection of the dividend The Dalio objection
038 Gaaze Naming the reforms
039 Levitsky and Ziblatt; Orbán Opponents
040 The eighth AI Media strategy
Number Chapter 08 — implementation Chapter 10 — USA
045 Campaign economics The US legal base
046 Detonators: the UK The Oregon initiative
047 Zugzwang of carriers State by state
048 The topology of inevitability The W-2 data source
048b The economics of stupidity The W-2 source in detail

Changelog

© 2026 Denis Klyavlin · AB-EXIT™ · CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 · denis@ab-exit.com